Estimating the burden of vitiligo: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vitiligo is a chronic autoimmune disease characterised by depigmented skin patches, which can pose substantial psychosocial challenges particularly in individuals with dark skin tones. Despite its impact on quality of life, there is an absence of standardised global epidemiological data. We sought to address this gap with the present study. METHODS: In this study we did a systematic review and modelling analysis to estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence and incidence of vitiligo. We did a comprehensive search of nine digital libraries (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scientific Electronic Library Online, KCI Korean Journal Database, Russian Science Citation Index, Western Pacific Region Index Medicus, Informit, and Health Research and Development Information Network) from inception up to May 25, 2023. We included cross-sectional or cohort studies reporting the incidence rate or prevalence of vitiligo, or data from which incidence rate or prevalence could be calculated, in the general population of a country or area of a country. Summary estimate data were extracted. A main outcome was to estimate the worldwide, regional, and country-specific lifetime prevalence of vitiligo diagnosed by physicians or dermatologists among the general population and in adults and children (as per age groups defined in included studies). We used a Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed model to estimate prevalence, and calculated number of affected individuals using the UN population structure in 2022. In estimating lifetime prevalence, studies reporting point or period prevalence were excluded. Our other main outcome was to estimate incidence rates of vitiligo, but due to a small number of studies, the data on incidence were presented in a descriptive summary. This study was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42023390433. FINDINGS: Our search identified 22 192 records, of which 90 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these studies, six focused on the incidence of vitiligo, 79 reported on the prevalence of vitiligo, and five provided data on both incidence and prevalence. 71 studies reported on lifetime prevalence. In the most recent years studied, incidence rates in the general population ranged from 24·7 cases (95% CI 24·3-25·2) per 100 000 person-years in South Korea in 2019, to 61·0 cases (60·6-61·4) in the USA in 2017. In individual studies, incidence rates showed an increasing trend over the periods studied. The global lifetime prevalence of vitiligo diagnosed by a physician or dermatologist was estimated at 0·36% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·24-0·54) in the general population (28·5 million people [95% CrI 18·9-42·6]), 0·67% (0·43-1·07) in the adult population (37·1 million adults [23·9-58·9]), and 0·24% (0·16-0·37) in the child population (5·8 million children [3·8-8·9]). Vitiligo prevalence was higher in adults than in children across all regions. Central Europe and south Asia reported the highest prevalence (0·52% [0·28-1·07] and 0·52% [0·33-0·82], respectively, in the general population). INTERPRETATION: This study highlights the need for standardised epidemiological data collection globally to inform public health policies and improve vitiligo diagnosis and management. Emphasis on the impact on individuals with darker skin tones is crucial to reducing stigma and improving quality of life. Furthermore, our study highlights the need to conduct more research in regions and populations that have been historically under-represented, to effectively address the worldwide burden of vitiligo. FUNDING: None.

Global, Regional, and National Epidemiology of Alopecia Areata: A Systematic Review and Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata (AA) is a chronic autoimmune disease that leads to a high psychiatric, economic, and systemic disease burden. A comprehensive understanding of AA epidemiology is essential for evaluating healthcare source utilization; however, there is a lack of systematic approach for summarizing epidemiologic data on AA. OBJECTIVES: To systematically investigate the global, regional, and national incidence and prevalence of AA. METHODS: A structured search was conducted using the Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, SciELO, and Korean journal databases from their inception date to October 4, 2023. Studies that reported the prevalence or incidence of AA were included. We used a Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed model to analyse the prevalence estimates. The primary outcomes of our study were the global, regional, and national prevalence of physician-diagnosed AA for overall population, adults, and children. The incidence data were summarised descriptively. RESULTS: In total, 88 studies from 28 countries were included in the analysis. The reported incidence of alopecia areata tended to be higher in adults aged 19-50 years, and this trend was consistent with its estimated prevalence. The reported prevalence in overall population tended to be higher in men compared to in women. The estimated lifetime prevalence of AA was 0.10% (95% credible intervals, 0.03%-0.39%) in the general population worldwide, 0.12% (95% credible intervals, 0.02%-0.52%) in adults, and 0.03% (95% credible intervals, 0.01%-0.12%) in children. The estimated prevalence was highest in the Asian region and lowest in the African region. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, 48% of the total Global Burden of Disease regions had insufficient data reporting the prevalence or incidence of AA. Further studies are needed to provide epidemiological information on middle- and low-income countries. Our study can serve as a crucial reference in terms of healthcare policy decisions.

Trends in full-time working in general practice: repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence and no agreement on what constitutes full-time working for general practitioners (GPs). This is essential for workforce planning, resource allocation and accurately describing GP activity. AIM: To clarify the definition of full-time working for general practitioners, how this has changed over time and whether these changes are explained by GP demographics. DESIGN AND SETTING: Repeated cross-sectional national surveys between 2010 and 2021. METHOD: Comparison of three measures of working time commitments (hours and sessions per week and hours per session) plus a measure of workload intensity across survey years. Multiple regression to adjust the changes over time for age, sex, ethnicity, contract type, area deprivation, and rurality. Unadjusted hours and sessions per week were compared to definitions of full-time working. RESULTS: Average hours and sessions per week reduced from 40.5 (95% CI: 38.5, 42.5) to 38.0 (36.3, 39.6) and 7.3 (7.2, 7.3) to 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) respectively between 2010 and 2021. In 2021, 54.6% of GPs worked at least 37.5 hours per week and 9.5% worked at least 9 sessions. Hours per session increased from 5.7 (5.7, 5.7) to 6.2 (6.2, 6.3) between 2010 and 2021. Partners worked more hours, sessions and hours per session. Adjustments increased the increase in hours per session from 0.54 to 0.61. CONCLUSION: At the current average duration of sessions, six sessions per week aligns with the NHS definition of full-time hours. However, hours per week is a more consistent way to define full-time work for GPs.

Oral anticoagulant prescribing among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation in England, 2009-2019.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer is challenging because of their high risk for stroke and bleeding. Little is known of the variations of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescribing in patients with AF with and without cancer. METHODS: Patients with first-time AF during 2009-2019 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were included. Cancer diagnosis was defined as a history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or hematological cancer. Competing-risk analysis was used to assess the risk of OAC prescribing in patients with AF and cancer adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Of 177,065 patients with AF, 11.7% had cancer. Compared to patients without cancer, patients with cancer were less likely to receive OAC: prostate cancer (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), breast cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98), colorectal cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99), hematological cancer (SHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75), and lung cancer (SHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.38-0.50). The cumulative incidence function (CIF) of OAC prescribing was lowest for patients with lung cancer and hematological cancer compared with patients without cancer. The difference between the CIF of OAC prescribing in patients with and without cancer becomes narrower in the most deprived areas. Elderly patients (aged ≥85 years) overall had the lowest CIF of OAC prescribing regardless of cancer status. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, underprescribing of OAC is independently associated with certain cancer types. Patients with hematological and lung cancer are the least likely to receive anticoagulation therapy compared with patients without cancer. Underprescribing of OAC in cancer is linked to old age. Further studies of patients with AF and cancer are warranted to assess the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in certain cancer types.

The association of herpes zoster and influenza vaccinations with the risk of developing dementia: a population-based cohort study within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Dementia affects ability to remember, think, or make decisions that interfere with doing everyday activities. There is no cure, therefore any prevention or delay of the onset is of importance. This study aims to investigate the association between zoster and influenza vaccinations and the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using electronic health records from 1469 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database with linked hospital episode statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality records. We built two 'matched cohorts': zoster vaccine (854,745 exposed individuals) matched with 8.8 million comparators without a history of zoster vaccination, and influenza vaccine (742,487 exposed individuals) matched with 7.12 million comparators without a history of vaccination as another comparator group. The cohorts were then followed to assess the association of exposure (vaccine) with outcome (dementia diagnosis). RESULTS: Zoster vaccination was associated with a lower risk of dementia diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 with 95% CI: 0.77-0.79), Alzheimer's diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.91 with 95% CI: 0.89-0.92 and other types of dementia (adjusted HR 0.71 with 95% CI: 0.69-0.72). Influenza vaccination also was associated with a slightly reduced hazard of dementia risk (adjusted HR 0.96 with 95% CI: 0.94-0.97). CONCLUSION: Both zoster vaccine for prevention of shingles / herpes zoster and influenza vaccine to prevent influenza were associated with diminished risk of dementia, with the zoster association appearing more pronounced.

Common Cancer Types and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study in England.

BACKGROUND: The association between cancer and stroke or bleeding outcomes in atrial fibrillation is unclear. We sought to examine how certain types of cancer influence the balance between stroke and bleeding risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated stroke and bleeding risk among adult patients with NVAF and certain types of cancer (breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, and hematological cancer) from 2009 to 2019 based on data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD and Aurum databases. The control group included patients with NVAF only. Of 177 065 patients with NVAF, 11379 (6.4%) had cancer (1691 breast, 3955 prostate, 1666 colorectal, 2491 hematological, and 1576 lung). Compared with patients without cancer, stroke risk was higher in patients with breast cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.07-1.35) and with prostate cancer (aHR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.01-1.12) if diagnosed within 6 months before NVAF. The risk of bleeding was increased in subjects with hematological cancer (aHR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.40-1.71]), lung cancer (aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.25, 1.77]), prostate cancer (aHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.28-1.49]), and colorectal cancer (aHR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.21-1.53]), but not for subjects with breast cancer. The more recent the cancer diagnosis before NVAF diagnosis (within 6 months), the higher the risk of bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Breast and prostate cancer are associated with increased stroke risk, whereas in some cancer types, the risk of bleeding seemed to exceed stroke risk. In these patients, prescribing of oral anticoagulant should be carefully evaluated to balance bleeding and stroke risk.

Fertility Trends and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Female Patients With Psoriasis in the UK.

Importance: Evidence regarding fertility trends and obstetric outcomes among patients with psoriasis is limited by studies of small sample sizes, noninclusion of comparators, and the lack of accurate pregnancy records. Objective: To investigate fertility rates and obstetric outcomes of pregnancies in female patients with psoriasis compared with age- and general practice-matched comparators without psoriasis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study used data from 887 primary care practices that contributed to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database between 1998 and 2019, linked to a pregnancy register and Hospital Episode Statistics. There were 6 223 298 patients of common childbearing ages (15-44 years), and 63 681 patients with psoriasis had at least 1 year of follow-up data prior to the diagnosis of psoriasis. For each patient with psoriasis, 5 patients were matched by age from the same general practice. The median follow-up duration was 4.1 years. Data analysis was performed in 2021. Exposures: Patients with psoriasis were identified using clinical diagnostic codes from consultations. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fertility rates were calculated as the number of pregnancies per 100 patient-years. The outcomes of each pregnancy recorded in the pregnancy register or Hospital Episode Statistics were screened to identify obstetric outcomes. A negative binomial model was used to examine the association between psoriasis and the fertility rate. Logistic regression was applied to compare the association between psoriasis and obstetric outcomes. Results: A total of 63 681 patients with psoriasis and 318 405 matched comparators were included in the analysis (median [IQR] age, 30 [22-37] years). Lower fertility rates (rate ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.83) were found in patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. Compared with matched comparators without psoriasis, pregnancies in patients with psoriasis had a higher risk of loss (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03-1.10); however, there was no increase in the risks of antenatal hemorrhage, preeclampsia, or gestational diabetes. Conclusion and Relevance: In this cohort study, patients with moderate to severe psoriasis had a lower fertility rate, and the risk of pregnancy loss was higher than in matched comparators without psoriasis. Future research should identify the mechanism of increased risk of pregnancy loss among patients with psoriasis.

Predictors and population health outcomes of persistent high GP turnover in English general practices: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: English primary care faces significant challenges, including 'persistent high turnover' of general practitioners (GPs) in some partnerships. It is unknown whether there are specific predictors of persistent high turnover and whether it is associated with poorer population health outcomes. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study. METHODS: We linked workforce data on individual GPs to practice-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the GP Patient Survey (2007-2019). We classified practices as experiencing persistent high turnover if more than 10% of GPs changed in at least 3 consecutive years. We used multivariable logistic or linear regression models for panel data with random effects to identify practice characteristics that predicted persistent high turnover and associations of practice outcomes (higher emergency hospital use and patient experience of continuity of care, access to care and overall patient satisfaction) with persistent high turnover. RESULTS: Each year, 6% of English practices experienced persistent high turnover, with a maximum of 9% (688/7619) in 2014. Larger practices, in more deprived areas and with a higher morbidity burden were more likely to experience persistent high turnover. Persistent high turnover was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1) more emergency hospital attendances per 100 patients, 0.1 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) more admissions per 100 patients, 5.2% (95% CI -5.6% to -4.9%) fewer people seeing their preferred doctor, 10.6% (95% CI-11.4% to -9.8%) fewer people reporting obtaining an appointment on the same day and 1.3% (95% CI -1.6% to -1.1%) lower overall satisfaction with the practice. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent high turnover is independently linked to indicators of poorer service and health outcomes. Although causality needs to be further investigated, strategies and policies may be needed to both reduce high turnover and support practices facing challenges with high GP turnover when it occurs.

Mapping opportunities for the earlier diagnosis of psoriasis in primary care settings in the UK: results from two matched case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of psoriasis may be missed or delayed in primary care settings. AIM: To examine trends in healthcare events before a diagnosis of psoriasis. DESIGN AND SETTING: Two matched case-control studies using electronic healthcare records delineated from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD and Aurum) in the UK. METHOD: Individuals aged ≥18 years with an incident diagnosis of psoriasis (case group) between 1 January 2010 and 29 December 2017 were identified and matched by age, sex, and general practice with six individuals without psoriasis (control group). Healthcare activities were examined and annual incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 10 years before the index date were compared between case and control groups. RESULTS: There were 17 320 people with psoriasis and 99 320 controls included from CPRD GOLD, and 11 442 people with psoriasis and 65 840 controls extracted from CPRD Aurum. Data from CPRD GOLD showed that people with psoriasis were up to eight times more likely to be diagnosed with pityriasis rosea at 6 months (IRR 7.82, 95% CI = 4.09 to 14.95) before the index date than the control group. The case group were twice as likely to be diagnosed with eczema (IRR 1.90, 95% CI = 1.76 to 2.05) or tinea corporis (IRR 1.99, 95% CI = 1.74 to 2.27) 1 year before the index date. The case group were more likely to report dry skin, rash, skin texture changes, and itching than the control group up to 5 years before the index date. The most frequently reported clinical feature was rash with an IRR of 2.71 (95% CI = 2.53 to 2.92) at 1 year before the index date. The case group were prescribed topical corticosteroids (IRR 1.97, 95% CI = 1.88 to 2.07) or topical antifungals (IRR 1.92, 95% CI = 1.78 to 2.07) in the year before the index date twice as often as those in the control group. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that the diagnosis of psoriasis may be missed or delayed in a UK primary care setting for up to 5 years for some individuals, hence leading to a potentially detrimental delay in establishing an appropriate treatment regimen.

Clinical code usage in UK general practice: a cohort study exploring 18 conditions over 14 years.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic Read code usage for 18 conditions by examining their frequency and diversity in UK primary care between 2000 and 2013. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study SETTING: 684 UK general practices contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with clinical codes for at least one of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension (HT), coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure, stroke, hypothyroidism, chronic kidney disease, learning disability (LD), depression, dementia, epilepsy, severe mental illness (SMI), osteoarthritis, osteoporosis and cancer. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: For the frequency ranking of clinical codes, canonical correlation analysis was applied to correlations of clinical code usage of 1, 3 and 5 years. Three measures of diversity (Shannon entropy index of diversity, richness and evenness) were used to quantify changes in incident and total clinical codes. RESULTS: Overall, all examined conditions, except LD, showed positive monotonic correlation. HT, hypothyroidism, osteoarthritis and SMI codes' usage had high 5-year correlation. The codes' usage diversity remained stable overall throughout the study period. Cancer, diabetes and SMI had the highest richness (code lists need time to define) unlike AF, hypothyroidism and LD. SMI (high richness) and hypothyroidism (low richness) can last for 5 years, whereas cancer and diabetes (high richness) and LD (low richness) only last for 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: This is an under-reported research area and the findings suggest the codes' usage diversity for most conditions remained overall stable throughout the study period. Generated mental health code lists can last for a long time unlike cardiometabolic conditions and cancer. Adopting more consistent and less diverse coding would help improve data quality in primary care. Future research is needed following the transfer to the Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) coding.

Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that could be associated with under-prescribing of OACs. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of NVAF increased between 2009 and 2015, before plateauing. Underprescribing of OACs in NVAF is associated with a range of comorbidities, ethnicity, and socioeconomic factors, demonstrating the need for initiatives to reduce inequalities in the care for AF patients.

Examining the effect of evaluation sample size on the sensitivity and specificity of COVID-19 diagnostic tests in practice: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, many in vitro diagnostic (IVD) tests for SARS-CoV-2 have been developed. Given the urgent clinical demand, researchers must balance the desire for precise estimates of sensitivity and specificity against the need for rapid implementation. To complement estimates of precision used for sample size calculations, we aimed to estimate the probability that an IVD will fail to perform to expected standards after implementation, following clinical studies with varying sample sizes. METHODS: We assumed that clinical validation study estimates met the 'desirable' performance (sensitivity 97%, specificity 99%) in the target product profile (TPP) published by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). To estimate the real-world impact of imprecision imposed by sample size we used Bayesian posterior calculations along with Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 independent iterations of 5,000 participants. We varied the prevalence between 1 and 15% and the sample size between 30 and 2,000. For each sample size, we estimated the probability that diagnostic accuracy would fail to meet the TPP criteria after implementation. RESULTS: For a validation study that demonstrates 'desirable' sensitivity within a sample of 30 participants who test positive for COVID-19 using the reference standard, the probability that real-world performance will fail to meet the 'desirable' criteria is 10.7-13.5%, depending on prevalence. Theoretically, demonstrating the 'desirable' performance in 90 positive participants would reduce that probability to below 5%. A marked reduction in the probability of failure to hit 'desirable' specificity occurred between samples of 100 (19.1-21.5%) and 160 (4.3-4.8%) negative participants. There was little further improvement above sample sizes of 160 negative participants. CONCLUSION: Based on imprecision alone, small evaluation studies can lead to the acceptance of diagnostic tests which are likely to fail to meet performance targets when deployed. There is diminished return on uncertainty surrounding an accuracy estimate above a total sample size of 250 (90 positive and 160 negative).

Daily sitting time and its association with non-communicable diseases and multimorbidity in Catalonia.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 71% of deaths worldwide and individual behaviours such as sedentariness play an important role on their development and management. However, the detrimental effect of daily sitting on multiple NCDs has rarely been studied. This study sought (i) to investigate the association between sitting time and main NCDs and multimorbidity in the population of Catalonia and (ii) to explore the effect of physical activity as a modifier of the associations between sitting time and health outcomes. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from the 2016 National Health Survey of Catalonia were analyzed, and multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for socio-demographics and individual risk factors (tobacco and alcohol consumption, diet, hyperlipidaemia, hypertension, body mass index) was used to estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association between sitting time and NCDs. RESULTS: A total of 3320 people ≥15 years old were included in the study. Sitting more than 5 h/day was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (OR 1.90, 95% CI: 1.21-2.97), respiratory disease (OR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.13-2.30) and multimorbidity (OR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.53-5.15). Sitting more than 3 h/day was also associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity (OR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.23-4.16). Physical activity did not modify the associations between sitting time and any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Daily sitting time might be an independent risk factor for some NCDs, such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and multimorbidity, independently of the level risk of physical inactivity.

Consultation patterns and frequent attenders in UK primary care from 2000 to 2019: a retrospective cohort analysis of consultation events across 845 general practices.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution of consultations at the practice level and examine whether increases are uniform or driven by people who consult more frequently. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practice data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database. PARTICIPANTS: 1 699 709 314 consultation events from 12 330 545 patients, in 845 general practices (1 April 2000 to 31 March 2019). METHODS: Consultation information was aggregated by financial year into: all consultations/all staff; all consultations/general practitioners (GPs); face-to-face consultations/all staff; face-to-face consultations/GPs. Patients with a number of consultations above the 90th centile, within each year, were classified as frequent attenders. Negative binomial regressions examined the association between available practice characteristics and consultation distribution. RESULTS: Among frequent attenders, all consultations by GPs increased from a median (25th and 75th centile) of 13 (10 and 16) to 21 (18 and 25) and all consultations by all staff increased from 27 (23-30) to 60 (51-69) over the study period. Approximately four out of ten consultations of any type concerned frequent attenders and the proportion of consultations attributed to them increased over time, particularly for face-to-face consultations with GPs, from a median of 38.0% (35.9%-40.3%) in 2000-2001 to 43.0% (40.6%-46.4%) in 2018-2019. Regression analyses indicated decreasing trends over time for face-to-face consultations and increasing trends for all consultation types, for both GPs and all staff. Frequent attenders consulted approximately five times more than the rest of the practice population, on average, with adjusted incidence rate ratios ranging between 4.992 (95% CI 4.917 to 5.068) for face-to-face consultations with all staff and 5.603 (95% CI 5.560 to 5.647) for all consultations with GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent attenders progressively contributed to increased workload in general practices across the UK from 2000 to 2019. Important knowledge gaps remain in terms of the demographic, social and health characteristics of frequent attenders and how UK general practices can be prepared to meet the needs of these patients.

Rates of turnover among general practitioners: a retrospective study of all English general practices between 2007 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify general practitioners' (GPs') turnover in England between 2007 and 2019, describe trends over time, regional differences and associations with social deprivation or other practice characteristics. DESIGN: A retrospective study of annual cross-sectional data. SETTING: All general practices in England (8085 in 2007, 6598 in 2019). METHODS: We calculated turnover rates, defined as the proportion of GPs leaving a practice. Rates and their median, 25th and 75th percentiles were calculated by year and region. The proportion of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) over consecutive years were also calculated. A negative binomial regression model assessed the association between turnover and social deprivation or other practice characteristics. RESULTS: Turnover rates increased over time. The 75th percentile in 2009 was 11%, but increased to 14% in 2019. The highest turnover rate was observed in 2013-2014, corresponding to the 75th percentile of 18.2%. Over time, regions experienced increases in turnover rates, although it varied across English regions. The proportion of practices with high (10% to 40%) turnover within a year almost doubled from 14% in 2009 to 27% in 2019. A rise in the number of practices with persistent high turnover (>10%) for at least three consecutive years was also observed, from 2.7% (2.3%-3.1%) in 2007 to 6.3% (5.7%-6.9%) in 2017. The statistical analyses revealed that practice-area deprivation was moderately associated with turnover rate, with practices in the most deprived area having higher turnover rates compared with practices in the least deprived areas (incidence rate ratios 1.09; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: GP turnover has increased in the last decade nationally, with regional variability. Greater attention to GP turnover is needed, in the most deprived areas in particular, where GPs often need to deal with more complex health needs. There is a large cost associated with GP turnover and practices with very high persistent turnover need to be further researched, and the causes behind this identified, to allow support strategies and policies to be developed.

Concordance and timing in recording cancer events in primary care, hospital and mortality records for patients with and without psoriasis: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between psoriasis and the risk of cancer has been investigated in numerous studies utilising electronic health records (EHRs), with conflicting results in the extent of the association. OBJECTIVES: To assess concordance and timing of cancer recording between primary care, hospital and death registration data for people with and without psoriasis. METHODS: Cohort studies delineated using primary care EHRs from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum databases, with linkage to hospital episode statistics (HES), Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data and indices of multiple deprivation (IMD). People with psoriasis were matched to those without psoriasis by age, sex and general practice. Cancer recording between databases was investigated by proportion concordant, that being the presence of cancer record in both source and comparator datasets. Delay in recording cancer diagnoses between CPRD and HES records and predictors of discordance were also assessed. RESULTS: 58,904 people with psoriasis and 350,592 comparison patients were included using CPRD GOLD; whereas 213,400 people with psoriasis and 1,268,998 comparison patients were included in CPRD Aurum. For all cancer records (excluding keratinocyte), concordance between CPRD and HES was greater than 80%. Concordance for same-site cancer records was markedly lower (<68% GOLD-linked data; <72% Aurum-linked data). Concordance of non-Hodgkin lymphoma and liver cancer recording between CPRD and HES was lower for people with psoriasis compared to those without. CONCLUSIONS: Concordance between CPRD and HES is poor when restricted to cancers of the same site, with greater discordance in people with psoriasis for some cancers of specific sites. The use of linked patient-level data is an important step in reducing misclassification of cancer outcomes in epidemiological studies using routinely collected electronic health records.

Spiritual Well-Being and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, people and families experienced a new and sudden situation that forced them to stay in their homes for a long period (February 25- May 26). In this context, many people found themselves in great difficulty, not only because of the fear of contagion or the economic problems deriving from the closure of production activities but also because the virus profoundly changed the way of life in society. The "Social distancing" concept became central in all personal relationships, including close family relationships. In this situation, our paper seeks to understand the role of spirituality and religiosity in reacting to this difficult situation and in particular on the physical and psychological health of the people involved. The data we present here are part of a multidisciplinary research with a quantitative theoretical framework. As the data was collected during the first Italian lockdown, a total of 1,250 adults from all over Italy participated in the on-line questionnaire. Among the main results it emerged that the participants perceived lower levels of spiritual well-being and mental health than the pre-pandemic situation with a significant gender difference; in fact, women perceived lower mental health than men. At the same time, it is evident that spirituality and religious practices are a protective factor connected not only with psychological and mental but also physical health. Finally, it appears evident that the family is a protective factor with respect to mental health, even in a period so full of stress factors, those who did not live alone and especially those who had to take care of small children reported higher perceived mental health and a greater ability to activate coping resources.

Women Face to Fear and Safety Devices During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy: Impact of Physical Distancing on Individual Responsibility, Intimate, and Social Relationship.

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 in Italy had its first epidemic manifestations on January 31, 2020. The socio-sanitary rules imposed by the government concerned the social distance and management of intimate relationships, the sense of individual responsibility toward public health. Physical distancing and housing isolation have produced new representations of intrafamily, generational, neighborhood, community responsibility, bringing out a new "medicalized dimension" of society. In light of this contextual framework, the research aims are to analyze how: the perception of individual responsibility for public and familial health and physical distancing has redrawn the relation between subjects-family-community; the State's technical-health intervention has reformulated the idea of social closeness, but also how the pandemic fear and social confinement has re-evaluated a desire for community, neighborhood, proximity; during the lockdown families, friends, neighbors have reconstructed feelings of closeness and forms of belonging. The methodology used is quanti-qualitative and involved 300 women through an online questionnaire. The data collected highlight how the house during the lockdown is perceived as a safe place and how women implement both the recommendations and the behaviors aimed at preventing contagion, but also ways that allow coping with the situation from a perspective of well-being. Furthermore, the data show how the dimension of distancing has loosened the relational dimension outside the family unit, with a greater distancing compared to pre-pandemic data. However, the majority of women report that they have joined solidarity initiatives, demonstrating that they want to maintain ties and participate actively in community life.

National, regional, and worldwide epidemiology of psoriasis: systematic analysis and modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and provide information on the incidence of psoriasis and quantify global, regional, and country specific estimates of its prevalence. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO, Korean Journal Databases, Russian Science Citation Index, WPRIM, SaudiMedLit, Informit, IndMed, and HERDIN were searched systematically from their inception dates to October 2019. METHODS: Studies were included if they reported on the incidence or prevalence of psoriasis in the general population. Incidence data were summarised descriptively, whereas bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to estimate the global, regional, and country specific prevalence of psoriasis. RESULTS: 41 164 records were identified and 168 studies met the inclusion criteria. In adults, the incidence of psoriasis varied from 30.3 per 100 000 person years (95% confidence interval 26.6 to 34.1) in Taiwan to 321.0 per 100 000 person years in Italy. The prevalence of psoriasis varied from 0.14% (95% uncertainty interval 0.05% to 0.40%) in east Asia to 1.99% (0.64% to 6.60%) in Australasia. The prevalence of psoriasis was also high in western Europe (1.92%, 1.07% to 3.46%), central Europe (1.83%, 0.62% to 5.32%), North America (1.50%, 0.63% to 3.60%), and high income southern Latin America (1.10%, 0.36% to 2.96%). CONCLUSIONS: Eighty one per cent of the countries of the world lack information on the epidemiology of psoriasis. The disease occurs more frequently in adults than in children. Psoriasis is unequally distributed across geographical regions; it is more frequent in high income countries and in regions with older populations. The estimates provided can help guide countries and the international community when making public health decisions on the appropriate management of psoriasis and assessing its natural history over time. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42019160817.